90 Assembly constituencies · majority 46

Political pulse

Where BJP stands seat by seat, who is still undecided, what citizens raise, and which storylines are spreading.

Campaign room →Political map →

Actual · 2023 election result Modelled · sentiment, polarity and projections — not a poll

Modelled seats today

56 / 90

range 44–70 · held now 54 (+2)

Battleground seats

win chance between 35% and 65%

Undecided voters

27.2%

average across seats · net sentiment 3

Polarisation

0 fluid – 100 fully divided

90 seats by outlook

18 20 13 10 10 11 8

Safe 18Likely 20Leaning 13Toss-up 10Leaning away 10Likely loss 11Safe loss 8

Held seats at risk

MarwahiPranav Kumar Marpachi · 2023 margin 7.75 · Gaurela-Pendra-Marwahi
29%
Bharatpur-SonhatRenuka Singh · 2023 margin 3.31 · Manendragarh-Chirmiri-Bharatpur
30%
DantewadaChaitram Atami · 2023 margin 12.49 · Dantewada
36%
AntagarhVikram Usendi · 2023 margin 16.81 · Kanker
36%
KankerAsharam Netam · 2023 margin 0.01 · Kanker
48%
ManendragarhShyam Bihari Jaiswal · 2023 margin 11.8 · Manendragarh-Chirmiri-Bharatpur
53%

Seats that could be gained

Bhilai Nagarheld by Devendra Yadav (INC) · Durg
65%
Dongargaonheld by Daleshwar Sahu (INC) · Rajnandgaon
59%
Khairagarhheld by Yashoda Verma (INC) · Khairagarh-Chhuikhadan-Gandai
56%
Lailungaheld by Vidyawati Sidar (INC) · Raigarh
53%
Dhamtariheld by Onkar Sahu (INC) · Dhamtari
53%
Gunderdehiheld by Kunwer Singh Nishad (INC) · Balod
51%

Battlegrounds

closest first — click a seat for its full pulse

Seat	Member	2023 share	Modelled share	Undecided	Sentiment	Win chance	Top citizen issue
Bindrawagarh Gariaband	Janak Dhruw INC	47.1%	44.6%	27.4%	-13	50% Toss-up	Drainage
Gunderdehi Balod	Kunwer Singh Nishad INC	43.1%	45.2%	27.3%	+21	51% Toss-up	Ration card
Dharamjaigarh Raigarh	Laljeet Singh Rathia INC	43.9%	44.2%	27.5%	+6	48% Toss-up	Ayushman card
Kanker Kanker	Asharam Netam BJP	45.6%	43.8%	27.7%	-16	48% Toss-up	Certificates
Bhatapara Baloda Bazar-Bhatapara	Inder Kumar Sao INC	43.1%	44.3%	27.5%	+12	47% Toss-up	Certificates
Manendragarh Manendragarh-Chirmiri-Bharatpur	Shyam Bihari Jaiswal BJP	48.2%	45.3%	27.3%	-19	53% Toss-up	Street lights
Lailunga Raigarh	Vidyawati Sidar INC	45.8%	45.8%	27.2%	+5	53% Toss-up	Ayushman card
Dhamtari Dhamtari	Onkar Sahu INC	47.0%	45.6%	27.2%	-7	53% Toss-up	Certificates
Dongargarh Rajnandgaon	Harshita Swami Baghel INC	43.3%	43.8%	27.6%	+8	46% Toss-up	Police
Sakti Sakti	Charan Das Mahant INC	42.9%	43.6%	27.7%	+7	46% Toss-up	Pension
Patan Durg	Bhupesh Baghel INC	41.2%	43.3%	27.8%	+16	44% Leaning away	Mahtari Vandan
Khairagarh Khairagarh-Chhuikhadan-Gandai	Yashoda Verma INC	46.2%	46.8%	27.0%	+11	56% Leaning	Hospital services
Pratappur Balrampur-Ramanujganj	Shakuntala Singh Portey BJP	43.6%	46.5%	27.7%	-1	57% Leaning	Certificates
Sihawa Dhamtari	Ambika Markam INC	42.1%	42.5%	27.9%	+5	42% Leaning away	Certificates
Janjgir-Champa Janjgir-Champa	Vyas Kashyap INC	41.3%	42.7%	28.0%	+8	42% Leaning away	Drainage
Dongargaon Rajnandgaon	Daleshwar Sahu INC	45.9%	47.5%	26.9%	+17	59% Leaning	Police
Rampur Korba	Phool Singh Rathiya INC	40.1%	42.4%	27.9%	+19	40% Leaning away	Police
Bastar Bastar	Lakheshwar Baghel INC	43.4%	41.7%	27.9%	-7	39% Leaning away	Human-wildlife conflict
Kota Gaurela-Pendra-Marwahi	Atal Shrivastava INC	40.1%	41.6%	28.1%	+11	39% Leaning away	Women's safety
Kurud Dhamtari	Ajay Chandrakar BJP	50.1%	48.2%	26.8%	-12	62% Leaning	Certificates
Keshkal Kondagaon	Neelkanth Tekam BJP	45.4%	48.5%	27.3%	+2	63% Leaning	Scholarship
Chitrakot Bastar	Vinayak Goyal BJP	43.7%	48.5%	27.5%	+7	64% Leaning	Human-wildlife conflict
Ambikapur Surguja	Rajesh Agrawal BJP	46.3%	48.8%	27.1%	+3	64% Leaning	Certificates
Antagarh Kanker	Vikram Usendi BJP	42.2%	40.7%	28.5%	-22	36% Leaning away	Certificates
Dantewada Dantewada	Chaitram Atami BJP	42.9%	40.2%	28.4%	-25	36% Leaning away	Schools
Kharsia Sarangarh-Bilaigarh	Umesh Patel INC	42.2%	40.3%	28.2%	-10	35% Leaning away	Electricity
Bhilai Nagar Durg	Devendra Yadav INC	47.3%	49.2%	26.6%	+18	65% Leaning	Mahtari Vandan
Chandrapur Sakti	Ram Kumar Yadav INC	39.4%	40.5%	28.3%	+9	35% Leaning away	Pension
Pathalgaon Jashpur	Gomati Sai BJP	45.9%	49.1%	27.2%	+4	65% Leaning	Human-wildlife conflict
Narayanpur Narayanpur	Kedar Nath Kashyap BJP	48.2%	49.4%	27.0%	-6	66% Leaning	Schools
Kondagaon Kondagaon	Lata Usendi BJP	51.3%	49.6%	26.6%	-14	68% Leaning	Scholarship
Jashpur Jashpur	Raymuni Bhagat BJP	49.2%	49.9%	26.8%	-6	69% Leaning	Human-wildlife conflict
Samri Balrampur-Ramanujganj	Uddheshwari Paikra BJP	45.5%	50.4%	27.1%	+9	70% Leaning	Certificates
Bharatpur-Sonhat Manendragarh-Chirmiri-Bharatpur	Renuka Singh BJP	37.5%	38.5%	29.2%	-13	30% Likely loss	Street lights
Baikunthpur Koriya	Bhaiyalal Rajwade BJP	48.2%	50.6%	26.9%	-1	71% Likely	Cyber fraud
Pandariya Kabirdham	Bhawna Bohra BJP	50.7%	50.5%	26.5%	-7	71% Likely	PM Awas
Masturi Bilaspur	Dilip Lahariya INC	36.9%	39.3%	28.7%	+13	29% Likely loss	Industry
Marwahi Gaurela-Pendra-Marwahi	Pranav Kumar Marpachi BJP	33.4%	38.3%	29.8%	-4	29% Likely loss	Women's safety
Bijapur Bijapur	Vikram Mandavi INC	40.5%	38.3%	28.6%	-13	29% Likely loss	Forest rights
Baloda Bazar Baloda Bazar-Bhatapara	Tank Ram Verma BJP	49.3%	50.6%	26.6%	0	71% Likely	Certificates
Mungeli Mungeli	Punnulal Mohle BJP	49.7%	51.8%	26.5%	+4	74% Likely	Paddy procurement
Kasdol Baloda Bazar-Bhatapara	Sandeep Sahu INC	37.8%	37.9%	28.8%	-1	25% Likely loss	Certificates
Mahasamund Mahasamund	Yogeshwar Raju Sinha BJP	51.4%	51.7%	26.3%	-4	75% Likely	MGNREGA
Katghora Korba	Premchand Patel BJP	45.2%	51.7%	27.1%	+15	75% Likely	Police
Rajim Gariaband	Rohit Sahu BJP	50.2%	51.9%	26.4%	+1	75% Likely	Drainage
Sarangarh Sarangarh-Bilaigarh	Uttari Ganpat Jangde INC	38.0%	37.3%	29.0%	-7	25% Likely loss	Electricity
Beltara Bilaspur	Sushant Shukla BJP	48.3%	51.8%	26.6%	+8	76% Likely	Industry
Bemetara Bemetara	Dipesh Sahu BJP	49.6%	52.3%	26.4%	+7	76% Likely	PM Awas
Dondi Lohara Balod	Anila Bhendiya INC	36.9%	37.5%	29.0%	+1	24% Likely loss	Ration card
Kawardha Kabirdham	Vijay Sharma BJP	53.2%	52.6%	26.0%	-7	78% Likely	PM Awas
Saja Bemetara	Ishwar Sahu BJP	48.5%	52.8%	26.5%	+11	78% Likely	PM Awas
Bilha Bilaspur	Dharamlal Kaushik BJP	46.9%	52.6%	26.7%	+16	78% Likely	Industry
Navagarh Bemetara	Dayaldas Baghel BJP	50.0%	52.8%	26.3%	+7	78% Likely	PM Awas
Khallari Mahasamund	Dwarikadhish Yadav INC	37.2%	36.5%	29.0%	-4	21% Likely loss	MGNREGA
Lormi Mungeli	Arun Sao BJP	47.8%	53.3%	26.6%	+12	79% Likely	Paddy procurement
Khujji Rajnandgaon	Bholaram Sahu INC	34.3%	36.5%	29.2%	+11	20% Likely loss	Police
Sanjari-Balod Balod	Sangeeta Sinha INC	35.3%	35.7%	29.4%	-6	18% Likely loss	Ration card
Akaltara Janjgir-Champa	Raghavendra Kumar Singh INC	33.7%	36.1%	29.5%	+6	18% Likely loss	Drainage
Kunkuri Jashpur	Vishnu Deo Sai BJP	54.9%	53.7%	25.8%	-9	82% Likely	Human-wildlife conflict
Lundra Surguja	Prabodh Minz BJP	52.8%	54.1%	25.9%	+2	82% Likely	Certificates
Jagdalpur Bastar	Kiran Singh Deo BJP	55.5%	54.2%	25.6%	-7	84% Likely	Human-wildlife conflict
Sitapur Surguja	Ramkumar Toppo BJP	50.4%	54.7%	26.2%	+11	84% Likely	Certificates
Premnagar Surajpur	Bhulan Singh Marabi BJP	51.9%	54.5%	26.1%	+3	84% Likely	Solid waste
Bhatgaon Surajpur	Laxmi Rajwade BJP	54.1%	54.7%	25.8%	-1	85% Likely	Solid waste
Saraipali Mahasamund	Chaturi Nand INC	34.7%	34.5%	29.6%	-8	14% Safe loss	MGNREGA
Korba Korba	Lakhan Lal Dewangan BJP	53.7%	54.8%	25.8%	+1	87% Safe	Police
Pamgarh Janjgir-Champa	Sheshraj Harvansh INC	32.0%	34.2%	29.8%	+4	11% Safe loss	Drainage
Ramanujganj Balrampur-Ramanujganj	Ramvichar Netam BJP	54.6%	55.8%	25.6%	+2	89% Safe	Certificates
Takhatpur Bilaspur	Dharmjeet Singh Thakur BJP	50.6%	55.7%	26.0%	+17	89% Safe	Industry
Mohla-Manpur Mohla-Manpur-Ambagarh Chowki	Indrashah Mandavi INC	34.1%	33.1%	29.8%	-11	10% Safe loss	MGNREGA
Raipur City North Raipur	Purandar Mishra BJP	48.3%	55.9%	26.3%	+22	91% Safe	Drinking water
Durg Gramin Durg	Lalit Chandrakar BJP	52.5%	56.7%	25.7%	+15	93% Safe	Mahtari Vandan
Basna Mahasamund	Sampat Agrawal BJP	57.8%	57.0%	25.1%	-4	93% Safe	MGNREGA
Bilaigarh Sarangarh-Bilaigarh	Kavita Pran Lahrey INC	29.6%	32.0%	30.5%	-3	6% Safe loss	Electricity
Arang Raipur	Guru Khushwant Saheb BJP	52.6%	57.1%	25.6%	+17	96% Safe	Drinking water
Abhanpur Raipur	Indra Kumar Sahu BJP	52.0%	57.3%	25.7%	+19	96% Safe	Drinking water
Jaijaipur Sakti	Baleshwar Sahu INC	29.2%	30.9%	30.5%	-1	3% Safe loss	Pension
Ahiwara Durg	Domanlal Korsewada BJP	54.6%	58.1%	25.3%	+13	98% Safe	Mahtari Vandan
Bhanupratappur Kanker	Savitri Manoj Mandavi INC	32.0%	31.5%	30.3%	-14	2% Safe loss	Certificates
Raigarh Raigarh	O. P. Choudhary BJP	63.2%	63.6%	23.8%	+6	99% Safe	Ayushman card
Pali-Tanakhar Korba	Tuleshwar Markam GGP	20.0%	26.4%	31.9%	+13	1% Safe loss	Police
Bilaspur Bilaspur	Amar Agrawal BJP	57.9%	64.6%	24.3%	+28	99% Safe	Industry
Dharsiwa Raipur	Anuj Sharma BJP	58.6%	61.4%	24.5%	+13	99% Safe	Drinking water
Raipur City Gramin Raipur	Motilal Sahu BJP	55.0%	62.3%	24.9%	+28	99% Safe	Drinking water
Raipur City West Raipur	Rajesh Munat BJP	60.4%	62.6%	24.2%	+13	99% Safe	Drinking water
Raipur City South Raipur	Sunil Kumar Soni BJP	69.5%	72.8%	22.2%	+26	99% Safe	Drinking water
Durg City Durg	Gajendra Yadav BJP	63.9%	64.9%	23.6%	+12	99% Safe	Mahtari Vandan
Vaishali Nagar Durg	Rikesh Sen BJP	59.5%	62.3%	24.4%	+14	99% Safe	Mahtari Vandan
Rajnandgaon Rajnandgaon	Raman Singh BJP	61.2%	62.2%	24.2%	+8	99% Safe	Police
Konta Sukma	Kawasi Lakhma INC	29.3%	29.2%	30.9%	-21	1% Safe loss	Police

Who is with the government, and who can be won

Polarity by division

Average share of voters in each of five groups.

Undecided voters against win chance

Seats to the right with a win chance near 50% are decided by persuasion. Click a dot.

What citizens raise

Live tower records

Grievances by subject

Where the government is blamed

Subjects with the most grievances past their time limit.

Forest rights8 of 18 past the time limit · Tribal, OBC & Minority Development
44%
MGNREGA7 of 18 past the time limit · Panchayat & Rural Development
39%
Human-wildlife conflict7 of 24 past the time limit · Forest & Climate Change
29%
Paddy procurement4 of 15 past the time limit · Food, Civil Supplies & Consumer Protection
27%
PM Awas4 of 16 past the time limit · Panchayat & Rural Development
25%
Certificates6 of 25 past the time limit · Revenue & Disaster Management
24%

Storylines in circulation

Sample records

Hostile

Hasdeo forest mining will displace tribal villagesreach 77 · +6 this week · believed 66 · Unverified · Surguja
Paddy bonus arrears are being delayedreach 72 · +9 this week · believed 61 · Partly accurate · Janjgir-Champa
Recruitment exams are being postponed againreach 69 · +11 this week · believed 74 · Partly accurate · Bilaspur
Tap connections installed but no water flowsreach 64 · +12 this week · believed 70 · Partly accurate · Bijapur
Cyber fraud calls are rising and police are slowreach 47 · +7 this week · believed 58 · Partly accurate · Durg

Favourable

Mahtari Vandan money is reaching women every monthreach 81 · +4 this week · believed 78 · Raipur
Security camps are bringing roads and ration shops to Bastarreach 58 · +8 this week · believed 72 · Sukma
PM Awas houses are finally getting builtreach 55 · +3 this week · believed 69 · Mahasamund

What if

Method: each seat starts from the actual 2023 vote share. Sentiment is estimated from the seat's delivery score, its change this quarter and how many grievances in the district were resolved in time. Voters are split into five groups from those two inputs, the undecided group is shared out by the sitting member's delivery record, and the margin is turned into a win chance. No polling or field reports are behind these numbers. Analysis is for whole constituencies only; no individual voter data is held.

Simulated demo data — district figures are modelled for demonstration; election results, portfolios, schemes and budget size are from public sources. Admin